$4,450 Gold?! Crazy or Inevitable?

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Dear Reader,

Deutsche Bank just raised its 2026 gold forecast to $4,450 per ounce, up from $4,000 just two months ago.

That's not some fringe newsletter or gold bug making wild predictions.

That's one of the oldest, most storied names in global finance telling its institutional clients to prepare for gold prices 7% higher than today's already-historic levels.

Their reasoning?

What analysts call a "positive structural picture" of "inelastic demand" from central banks and ETF investors that is systematically diverting supply away from the jewelry market.

In plain English: the big money is hoovering up every ounce it can find, and there's not enough gold to go around.

The timing of this forecast is no accident dear reader…

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• Deutsche Bank Raises Gold Forecast: The German banking giant raised its 2026 gold price target to $4,450 per ounce from $4,000, citing persistent central bank demand and inelastic buying that is diverting supply from the jewelry market.

• Hassett Emerges as Fed Chair Frontrunner: White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett is now the leading candidate to succeed Jerome Powell, according to Bloomberg. Hassett has said he would "be cutting rates right now" if he were in charge.

• Jobless Claims Fall to 7-Month Low: Initial jobless claims dropped to 216,000 last week, the lowest since mid-April, suggesting employers are holding onto workers even as hiring remains sluggish.

The News Behind The News

Deutsche Bank Sees Gold Going Higher

Deutsche Bank raised eyebrows on Wednesday by hiking its 2026 gold price forecast to $4,450 per ounce from $4,000.

The bank's analysts pointed to what they call "inelastic demand from central banks and ETF investment diverting supply from the jewelry market."

In plain English: the world's monetary authorities are buying gold like there's no tomorrow, and there isn't enough to go around.

Third quarter supply-demand data supports a continued central bank bid. Overall growth in demand is outpacing supply.

Gold's strong performance relative to the U.S. dollar and its unusually wide trading range in 2025, the largest since 1980, are seen as underpinning this constructive outlook.

A record high number of central banks are planning to increase their gold allocations, according to surveys. Deutsche Bank calls gold the "ultimate protection against black swan tail risk events."

Now why would central banks, those bastions of fiat currency management, feel the need for protection against tail risk events?

We leave that as an exercise for the reader.

The Jobs Market Paradox

Wednesday brought us a curious data point: initial jobless claims fell to 216,000 last week, the lowest reading since mid-April.

On the surface, this suggests employers are holding onto their workers.

But dig a little deeper and the picture grows murkier. Continuing claims, which measure people receiving benefits after their first week, rose to 1.96 million. The so-called "no hire, no fire" labor market continues: companies aren't laying off workers en masse, but they're not exactly rushing to bring on new ones either.

Some economists note that President Trump's trade and immigration policies have created an environment where businesses are simply frozen, uncertain whether to expand or contract. Meanwhile, companies like Amazon are quietly integrating artificial intelligence into roles that once required human workers.

As one analyst put it, "the latest claims data indicate hiring remains too weak to absorb the low numbers of people losing their jobs."

Translation: even though layoffs are low, those who do lose jobs are having a devil of a time finding new ones.

The Precious Metals Tell Their Story

Gold traded near two-week highs on Wednesday, hovering around $4,165 per ounce as investors continued to price in expectations of a December rate cut. The yellow metal has now gained roughly 57% over the past twelve months.

But silver, as usual, is the more dramatic performer. At $53.14 per ounce, the white metal jumped 3.3% on Wednesday alone and has gained approximately 77% over the past year, outpacing its more famous cousin by a healthy margin.

The gold-to-silver ratio sits around 78:1, still elevated by historical standards and suggesting silver may have further room to run relative to gold.

The Bottom Line

As you enjoy your Thanksgiving feast tomorrow, consider the chess moves being made in Washington and Frankfurt.

A Fed chair candidate who openly says he'd cut rates "right now."

A major European bank predicting gold at $4,450.

Central banks worldwide continuing their decades-long accumulation of the barbarous relic.

Stocks rallying on hopes that cheaper money will smooth over whatever structural problems ail the economy.

The pattern is not particularly subtle.

Those who control the world's monetary plumbing appear to be hedging their bets with an asset that has outlasted every paper currency ever created…

GOLD

Gold doesn't pay dividends or issue earnings guidance.

It just sits there, as it has for millennia, quietly measuring the confidence the world has in the promises printed on paper money.

At 57% returns over the past year, the measurement continues to be unflattering.

Happy Thanksgiving, dear reader.

The Wealth Protection Research Team